What’ll Happen When...

Imagine Coronavirus is, more or less, beaten.

 We are all back at work – maybe some aren’t. We may be making appointments to see our local health professional to get a vaccine injection while wearing a mask.  Some of us are not going back to work as the business we ran or worked for has gone under.

 What now?

Rishi Sunak has an empty treasure chest, not just empty he has a serious overdraft. All the projects he and Boris Johnson had in mind and talked so much about during the general election are unaffordable, but can they hold back on supporting the traditional Labour voters who lent their vote to the Tories?

 Billions have been pumped into paying wages and supporting (some) businesses – but did it all get there in time?

 Some very clever people, who are paid to make predictions, have suggested a recession of huge proportions with house prices falling by up to 16%. Given other predictions about the recession being deeper than the financial crash of just over 10 years ago and possibly more like the 1930’s crash, then 16% would seem optimistic!

For the property market to slide we need a few things to line up and jointly impact the national economy and people’s personal economy: high unemployment that makes it very difficult for people to service their debts and expensive money / mortgage rates. We have had employment supported and we currently have the lowest interest rates ever. The housing shortage has not gone away and construction during the ‘Lock Down’ phase has all but ground to a halt.

None of these negative factors are strong enough to make me think large house price falls are on the cards. It may be more difficult to connect chains. It may be a time for creative estate agency where sales have to be negotiated with skill and care and prices may be more sensitive and subject to movement to get the ‘job done’. The way it has always been with media is that the news has to be extreme for it to be newsworthy. Maybe it’s just going to be a bit rational and a bit more ‘normal’ – which won’t sell papers or give Panorama something to make a program about! 

We’ll see…